Everyone loves a striker debate, especially at Rangers, but there’s a point in this that’s hard to argue with: you can’t separate finishing numbers from the chances being served up. Give any forward a steady diet of five-yard cutbacks and you’ll see “clinical” quickly. Feed them hopeful deliveries from deep and pot-shots from the edge of the box, and suddenly they’re “out of form”.
What kind of chances are we actually creating?
This is the bit that gets lost when folk start comparing goal tallies alone. A chance isn’t a chance in the same way every time. Is it a low cross across the six-yard line, or a floated ball from 35 yards that asks a striker to beat two centre-halves and still generate power? Is it a shot from a tight angle because the move broke down, or a simple tap-in after a cutback?
If too many of your “opportunities” are coming from deep crosses or shots from outside the box, then the numbers can make your forward line look worse than it is. That doesn’t excuse poor finishing, but it does change what you’re actually judging.
The SPL comparison tells a bigger story
The figures you’ve highlighted are interesting because they hint at something Rangers fans have felt for a while. The top scorers aren’t always doing something magical with every touch, they’re often just getting repeated looks at goal. You listed:
Maeda at 1 goal from every 5.7 chances, Shankland at 1 in 6.3, Maswanhise at 1 in 3.8, and Braga at 1 in 6.33.
Take the Motherwell lad aside and most of those rates are in a fairly similar range. That suggests volume and chance quality are huge drivers. It also backs up the idea that a forward can look “bang average” if the service is awkward, or look deadly if the team around him creates the right situations.
Are we looking at the wrong solution?
Danilo “isn’t performing” is a fair comment, but the wider point is bigger than any one player. If two strikers are broadly in the same ballpark for conversion and one is getting clearer openings, that’s not purely about the finishing. It’s about patterns of play.
And the Craig Halkett note is a cracker because it underlines how weird this stuff can be. If a centre-half can end up the most “efficient finisher” on the books, it tells you efficiency alone doesn’t equal “best striker to sign”. It might just mean he’s only shooting when the chance is perfect, often from set-pieces.
So maybe the first question for Rangers isn’t “who do we buy?” but “what kind of chances are we building?” Because if the chance profile doesn’t improve, the next name through the door risks getting the exact same stick.
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